Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Bending the curve

I'm getting close to an important landmark: The day that my moving average trendline in FatWatch will finally get pulled below 180. The diamonds on the chart below are the actual weigh-ins, but my average is still being pulled up by a few high readings. I don't know the details of how FatWatch computes its moving average -- how many weigh-ins it uses, whether it drops old weigh-ins or just gives them less weight.  The basic idea, though, is that a moving average is designed to smooth out fluctuations and show trends. The first chart shows weight trends over the past month.


It is even more obvious from my quarterly chart that I have been making a lot of progress over the last month. I have been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year but the last few weeks have definitely bent the curve toward more dramatic weight losses. In this case, "dramatic" is still less than a pound per week. If you looked at the spreadsheet from Monday's post, you'll know that I still have not done much dramatic calorie-cutting, I just have gradually worked on bringing that number lower. I joined the new DietBet to inspire me to push myself a little harder, starting next week. I will weigh-in over the weekend for that one.


When I look at trends for the last year, I can see that things are definitely moving in the right direction. This graph looks like the stock market in the 20s. It is a little discouraging, though, if I think about how far I still have to go to my ultimate weight goal, which isn't even on this chart.


When I look at my all-time weight history (last chart), I still have some work to do just to get back where I was in 2011, and even more to best my 2010 lows.  It looks to me, though there isn't enough detail to be sure, that my weight goes down a little each summer and then climbs again during the school year.  This year has been the exception, thankfully, as I have lost weight during spring semester. This gives me some hope that I could reach my weight goals this summer if I push. Then the important thing is not to let school stress be an excuse to let my exercise goals and calorie counting go out the window.

That, or find a way to become rich and famous through blogging so I can quit my day job.

[crickets chirping]

Okay, then, stress management it is.


Apologies for the super-geeky post. I will have more exciting things to blog about soon, I promise. For example: 10 DAYS TILL JILLIAN.

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"Count your calories, work out when you can, and try to be good to yourself. All the rest is bulls**t." -- Jillian Michaels at BlogHer '07